Sunday, November 13, 2005

The Big Game

The Big Game is here - the biggest game in Fresno State football history. Up next, arguably one of the great college football teams of all-time over the past few years - the USC Trojans, with Heisman winner Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, and Lendale White, among so many other solid talents, a 31-game winning streak over 3 seasons, and the defending national champions going on two years.

For Fresno State, everything has gone according to plan. We are #16 in the nation, our highest ranking ever achieved at this point of a season (previously, we've been ranked high in the preseason, had some big wins and then blew it, dropping out of the rankings, or we slip in at the end of the season with a big bowl win). The only blip on our season has been the Fresno State collapse at Oregon early in the season, but in many ways that may have been for better rather than worse, in keeping the team focused and humble, and not having the pressure of being undefeated. Oregon has gone on to lose only one game all season, and that only to USC, and they are highly ranked in the BCS, so this has not turned out to be a bad loss in terms of national recognition or ranking.

This past week, we took care of the most pressing business before USC, and actually the most pressing business we had to accomplish this year, which was beating Boise State. Boise has beat and embarassed us for 4 years, including defeating us when we were undefeated and BCS-dreaming with David Carr at quarterback 4 years ago. Ever since, we've been getting handled by Boise State, and looking on the outside in as far as the national picture. No more. Nothing was more important than beating them this year, and we did it.

We not only beat Boise State, we whipped them. Our defense looked really solid, and has boosted my assessment of our prospects against USC. Before the Boise State game, I had serious doubts about our defensive capability to stop USC from putting up 50+ points on us. After seeing us basically shutout Boise State (for 55+ minutes), I have more hope for our prospects, but only in the sense of holding them to 35-40 possibly. If we can do that, hold them to 35-40, we have a chance to win, since USC's defense isn't quite as powerful as it's been in past years, they are hurting at linebacker, and if we play our best game, or a perfect game, we can put up 35-40 on USC.

The keys will be to stop Reggie Bush and Lendale White, which is not an easy task. In fact, White may be the bigger threat, as we have a lot of speed, but Lendale is a load very hard to bring down, definitely NFL caliber, and has great vision in terms of holes and cut execution. As for Bush, always dangerous, nothing more needs to be said, and stopping these two will be our biggest challenge (I would love it if Pete plays Bush more than White, as he tends to do sometimes for Bush's Heisman campaign). Crazy as it may sound, our best chance for victory is to make Leinart, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner who should be starting in the NFL right now, beat us through the air, and hope for some breaks defensively in terms of turnovers (not likely to happen if USC is dominating on the ground, as neither Bush or White is a fumbler).

Meanwhile, our offense looks to be peaking right now. Running on USC will be harder than against any other team we've played, and we're going to need to be able to threaten them through the air throughout the game to stretch the field for Mathis and Sumlin. They're defensive secondary is a strength, and safety Bing is pro-caliber and 2006 1st rounder. We'll need to keep the safeties back, worried about the deep ball, while actually picking them apart more through the mid-range passing game. USC is inexperienced at linebacker right now due to injury, so if we can challenge and keep them guessing with effective pass routes in their area, we will then be more successful running the ball, since they will not be able to overplay the linebackers or safeties. If they do overplay, we'll have to punish them for it, and that's what I mean by playing our best or perfect game, in that we do not waste these opportunities with bad passes, drops, or failed pass protection/blitz pickups.

This blog will live this week, and maybe next if we want to talk about the game, and reflect on it, either in celebration or damage assessment. I'll be posting some analysis, as I've seen every USC game this year and have some ideas about how to approach them, and I always like to speculate on what Fresno ought to do. Feel free to comment and add your own analysis, including challenging my own.

11 Comments:

Blogger Owner Moderator said...

I was very much involved in Fresno State Football from 1981 for 10 years as a broadcaster for local stations and regional sporting networks. I moved to LA and did USC and UCLA home games in the same capacity from 1988 to 1992 for the reqional side of home games. In the late 1980's I also attended USC. I still reside in the WLA area and I am terribly torn between these two schools and their programs.

What the national audience needs to realize is that in looking back at all the meetings between the Dogs and USC/UCLA football matchups... the SoCal teams never cover the line spread. That USC team in the 1992 Freedom Bowl was favored by something like 17+ for the that matchup. Fresno won handily and sent Larry Smith on the bums rush out. You see, Fresno State Football has a magical ability to inflict personal reflection upon the larger and heavier ranked teams it faces at this level. This game on the 19th will either humble USC by the close score or outright embarrass them with a loss.

I was there when home team UCLA took Fresno for granted at the Rose Bowl I think in 1986 or 87. It was a very low scoring 7-3 game. UCLA up to that time, had an offense that averaged I think 37 pts a game. Even though UCLA won, it was a sobering victory for everyone in Westwood.

- However -

I was also there in 1991 when Sweeney's Bulldogs were enjoying a 23 pt lead the last 5:09 mins of the 4th qtr at San Jose only to see it slip away right down to the last 3 seconds of the game on a Spartan field goal.

Just like all teams of Fresno
State's caliber, heart and desire the Dogs rise to the occasion against the better teams. USC cannot take this game for granted. They are not playing just any hick college team from the San Joaquin Valley. In spirit, they are playing the Valley itself.

8:36 PM  
Blogger Owner Moderator said...

Correction, the San Jose game was in the early 80's while a member of the PC2A, not 1991.

8:41 PM  
Blogger Jimm said...

I remember those days of battling San Jose...they were a tough rival back in those days, and we did blow some leads too.

The worst collapse I remember, and witnessed, was at Bulldog Stadium when Drew Bledsoe and nationally ranked Washington State came to town. I think we had Dilfer then, and it was probably the same season as the Freedom Bowl, since my recollection is that Bledsoe was a senior and Dilfer a junior.

We were up big going into the second half, up at least 28 points, and Bledsoe brought Washington State back for the win, something like 38-35. Just crazy. And totally unrelated to your point about relaxing for lesser opponents, but so be it.

Though I don't think USC will underestimate us too much this game, there's a chance for that to happen with some of their young guys, and they'll be surprised to find out that we are a far superior team to Cal this year (no quarterback).

Cal ran pretty good against USC considering their quarterback sucks, with Lynch averaging almost 8 yards a carry, so with the injuries forcing USC to play the inexperienced linebackers, they should be really concerned that a peaking and very balanced offensive attack from Fresno State could just roll right over them.

9:45 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

As a Notre Dame student, I have this to say: Its been over 700 days since the Trojans last lost and seems that everyone thinks they are going to lose cause of a game 13 years ago. If you have not noticed, this is a little different than that game in Anaheim. Fresno State has a good team and will finish with the same record as Ohio State and Notre Dame but I wouldn't get my hopes up. The Trojans have so much heart and talent as we saw in October, I just don't see it happening. I'm sure you will get a couple good recuits off of this game but don't be suprized if they run up the score to 50+ to pad Bush's Heisman stats. Believe me, we thought we were going to get them just as you are thinking now and when they get going, they will tear your heart out and then stomp on it a couple times for good measure. Good luck and enjoy the nice 85 degree weather (we are getting snow this weekend).

12:32 AM  
Blogger Jimm said...

Believe me...the Freedom Bowl is the farthest thing from my mind. I've seen every USC game this year, and several of the Fresno State games, and I'm just going on that, plus a dose of wishful thinking in terms of game breaks...

9:10 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I grew up in Fresno, went to Fresno State and started going to Bulldogs games around 81 or '82, when I was 8 or 9 years old. I have lived in L.A. for the last 8 years and I am getting that same feeling, the same one I get every time Fresno State beats someone they arent supposed to. Terry Lee May said it perfectly here when he said, "In spirit, they are playing the Valley itself."
I remember playing Mater Dei in high school and their fans waving money at us. Its the same old story. There is something we have that USC and teams like them could never have. There is something about being from Fresno that makes being a Bulldog fan in your blood. It is the same thing I see when I go to Texas to see OU - Texas. There are things you cant measure and analyze on paper. The passion and heart of the 30,000 + Red Wave fans headed down here can not be fit into any category. We have all of the intangibles and all of the karma. There is something about growing up in Fresno and living through those hot and miserable summers and cold winters that hardens you. It is a dreamland down here and most of the people down here are soft. This is going to be an old fashioned rumble. Nothing against the SC players, as they are great and a lot of ours are from SoCal, but we will overwhelm their fans. Because to us, we live and breathe Fresno State Football. This is not so much David v. Goliath as it is a battle for bragging rights. After years of hearing how Fresno is the armpit of California and things like this, we can continue to exact revenge. And oh, how sweet it will be.

Fresno State - 31
Usc - 27

James -- See you there. You have a nice site here. Take it easy.

9:11 PM  
Blogger Owner Moderator said...

james d,

Just so you are aware, this BLOG has been quoted twice now in the LA sports radio market in the last two days. Both quotes came from this thread. Congratulations.

Also note that the locals here are now talking about a realistic 14.5 pt spread vice the 23.5 most Vegas line are laying. With Reggie Bush now in less than optimum shape (reported to be 75% - extremely sore after last week's Cal game per Xtra 570 AM at 1:15 pm today), and USC's DBs being less than stellar replacements, there is a very good chance the game will be even closer that 14 pts. USC does have bench depth though. It will be up to more than one of them to punch through that THICK RED HAZE the Dog's will lay down and spread out. Right now I would set it will be a less than 7 pt game.

3:37 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well, my fruitpicker bretheren and our "musatchioed, goateed hillbilly" coach Pat Hill have descended into "glamorous" Southern California to play a little football! Play Hard! Go Dogs!

9:48 AM  
Blogger Owner Moderator said...

Well, it's game day - it's also half-time as I type. This is a day of upsets, but I'm 30 minutes of game time away before stating the possible "obvious" ;-).

So far, I see USC doing just what I was hoping they wouldn't as a team... taking the Dogs for granted. Reggie Bush looks as to be the only one on the field playing up to the Troy standard. He's not posting big numbers, but he is being yardage productrive. Trojans are doing a good job on offense, problem is, the dogs are doing equally as well on offense AND special teams. Fresno has completely dictated the play speed and flavor of the match. They have also managed the clock in the first half most handsomely. Of the two offensive lines, Fresno has been most effective keeping Pinegar protected. CAn't say the same for USC, Leinart has been pressured and rushed in/out of the pocket more times than usual this year, and obviously more times than he's confortable with.

My outlook to the second half? Fresno has to take it up to the next notch or two. USC will be demanded to meet and exceed that level AS A TEAM else it might be just as I suspected.. a humbling of Troy with their narrow win or downright embarrassment with their loss. Another factor so far, no turnovers for either side and Pinegar has outperformed Leinart to this point.

Fox Sports' Shocknina halftime video with Fresno as the focus just gave me the chills...

Suddenly I see Fresno with the outright win and perhaps meeting USC in the Rose Bowl?

That THICK RED HAZE is becoming hard for the NCAA to ignore don't you think?

Go Dogs!
Fight on Troy!

9:25 PM  
Blogger Owner Moderator said...

Congratulations to USC on their 50-42 win tonight over the Dogs, they certainly earned it.

The game's been over for almost 20 minutes now. I received the expected phone calls from my two work co-horts who have been harrassing me all week about how USC was going to run all over the Dogs feeding on how how diminuitive the overall team is compared to perhaps the greatest USC team ever.

But what makes collegiate football fans great is that they will recognize effort and heart when they see it. After revelling in the SC victory, they were both the first to say how much more respect they have for the Bulldogs in the way they kept SC honest throughout the entire game. I have to agree with them. At no time throughout the game did I ever see SC put any second and third line players on the field. They did go through their normal personel rotation though, but that's expected. SC always had their best in... they had to, Fresno demanded it.

My own personal observation as to the key to SC's 8 point win? Turnovers, you know those things that were missing in the first half.

Did I mention that this SoCal team didn't beat the line against Fresno State... again?

Now lets see if SC can get by UCLA in 14 days and beat Texas in the Rose Bowl. Let's also see if Bush runs up even more than his 500+ AP yards he did tonight. If he does that and get credit for another 6-8 TDs during those games, the Heisman is his.

Looking to next year, SC could again be the BCS top seed. The really cool thing is that FSU will probably be rated even higher than 16 by this same time in 2006.

This has been a fun BLOG 'ya-all, hopefully we'll read each other's stuff next year on the Dogs.

12:06 AM  
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12:49 AM  

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